Monday Morning Mint #2
In our second Monday Morning Mint, we develop a possible future at the confluence of growing geopolitical polarization, rising protectionism, and the calls for re-shoring of critical supply chains.
How might such a world impact your business?
PLUS Recap of our Introduction to Monday Morning Mints
Monday Morning Mints: Recap
What makes a Mint?
- Confluences of headlines from last week (or older IF relevant)
- Provocations, e.g., hypothetical headlines from possible future(s)
- References that support or oppose the provocations — for you to explore
Why should I ‘pop’ a Mint?
- Start meaningful conversations with colleagues and friends
- Think about how the future may or may not unfold
- Act by building scenarios for your business and developing responses
What Mints are and aren’t
- Mints are Imaginations of possible futures, meant to provoke thinking
- Mints aren’t Predictions; that’s not our purpose.
- Mints are designed to have Gaps — you can fill in the blanks or subvert
What can I expect?
- Usually published every other Sunday, in the evening, GMT
- Based on News and Opinions from the preceding weeks, months, and years
- Open to Suggestions from you — send us news, ask us what-ifs
1,363 words | 05’09” reading time | 50/100 readability (similar to NYT)
(excludes the reading time of linked articles and the Introduction to Monday Morning Mints)
- Confluence —
- You may choose to skip links #2 and onward if short on time; links #2 and beyond may also be older and/or more detailed
- Dates correspond to the most significant development even though the issue at hand may be a long-developing matter of policy (for example)
- Provocation —
- Numbered hashtags provide past references supporting OR contradicting the provocation
- Best to refer to all links in this section for a better perspective
Please report broken links, if any, in the comments so we can fix the issues
Table of Contents
- Provocation & References
- What Now?
The article continues after the call to action. Join our mailing list!
International Supply Chains: Confluence
Tap the headings below to read the selected news, opinions, and analysis.
Supply Chain Polarization
- Mar 05, 2021 | Protectionism Around Natural Resources is Surging [#1 news, #2 analysis]
- Mar 25, 2021 | China Says Members of RCEP Pact Aim for Deal to Take Effect from 2022 [#1 news, #2 news]
- May 05, 2021 | EU Unveils Plan to Cut Dependency on China, Others [#1 news, #2 release, #3 strategy]
- Jun 08, 2021 | Biden Plan to Build Resilient Supply Chains, Revitalize American Manufacturing, and Fostering Broad-based Growth [#1 release, #2 report, #3 manifesto, #4 news, #5 opinion]
- Jul 12, 2021 | Localizing Supply Chains in the Middle East [#1 infographic, #2 brief, #3 analysis]
Supply Chain Shortening/Re-shoring/Near-shoring
- May 12, 2020 | The Coronavirus Pandemic Showed Why We Need Shorter, Simpler Supply Chains [#1 opinion]
- May 28, 2020 | Will Coronavirus Pandemic Finally Kill Off Global Supply Chains? [#1 opinion]
- Nov 19, 2020 | Pandemic Prompts Rethink of Food Supply Chains [#1 opinion]
- Mar 24, 2021 | Pandemic Reveals Weak Links in Global Supply Chain [#1 opinion]
- Apr 06, 2021 | COVID Stimulus Revives Calls for Washington to ‘Buy American’ [#1 report]
- Apr 06, 2021 | Short Food Supply Chains: Reconnecting Producers and Consumers [#1 review]
- Apr 29, 2021 | More EU Member States Join Forces to Support Local Chip Production [#1 news]
- Jun 28, 2021 | Stretched Global Supply Chain Means Shortages on Summer Menus [#1 news]
- Jul 12, 2021 | Intel Offers to Spread $20 Billion Chip Factory Investment Across EU [#1 news, #2 news, #3 news]
- Jul 13, 2021 | UK, European Manufacturers Want Battery Supply Chain Nearer Home — survey [#1 news]
Supply Chain Transparency & Sustainability
- Jun 19, 2020 | How Supply Chain Transparency can help Businesses Make the Right Calls [#1 opinion]
- Oct 23, 2020 | Campaigners Criticize Global Deal on Carbon Emissions from Shipping [#1 news]
- Feb 15, 2021 | Why Supply Chain Transparency is Becoming More Dominant in 2021 [#1 opinion]
- Mar 10, 2021 | EU Moves Towards Mandatory Supply Chain Due Diligence [#1 news, #2 proposal #3 analysis]
- Mar 22, 2021 | West Sanctions China Over Xinjiang Abuses, Beijing Hits Back at EU [#1 news]
- Mar 30, 2021 | Shipping Industry Emissions Keep Sailing Upward [#1 news, #2 report]
- May 04, 2021 | UNISON Demands Human Rights Due Diligence Law for Supply Chains [#1 news]
- Jun 11, 2021 | Germany Passes Law on Tougher Oversight of Supply Chains [#1 news]
- Jun 13, 2021 | G7 On Forced Labor, Climate Change, Inclusion, and Resilience [#1 & #2 release, #3 consensus, #4 communique]
- Jul 12, 2021 | Ship Owners are Concerned About a Revamp to Europe’s Carbon Market [#1 news]
- Apr 12, 2021 | Higher Shipping Costs are Here to Stay [#1 opinion]
- Jun 13, 2021 | How Bad are Global Shipping Snafus? [#1 news]
- Jul 01, 2021 | Unprecedented Levels of Congestion are Resulting in Vessel Delays that are Absorbing Needed Capacity [#1 update]
- Jul 09, 2021 | Global Container Port Congestion Squeezes Operators’ Margins [#1 research]
- Jul 11, 2021 | Container Imbalance Stymies Trade [#1 opinion]
- Jul 12, 2021 | Booking Suspension [#1, #2], New Surcharges [#1, #2, #3, #4, #5, #6]
- Jul 12, 2021 | European Forwarders Call for Fairer Intermodal Taxation Regime [#1 & #2 news]
- Jul 16, 2021 | Container Prices YoY Comparison [see chart below]
International Supply Chains: Provocation & References
Here are Headlines and Statements from Interviews in a Possible Future, the latest last. Starred statements have already been given, in reality.
- *Vaccine nationalism will only prolong the Pandemic, the restrictions needed to contain it, and the human and economic suffering they cause — WHO Director-General | #1, #2
- Protectionism is Rising. That’s a Problem for the World | #1 (accessed July 2021), #2
- Data and the Financial Supply Chains are the First Casualties of the New Cold War | #1, #2
- World’s Manufacturing Wonderlands Suffer as FDI Plummets | #1, #2
- COVID Whac-a-Mole is Making Supply Chain Diversification More Challenging Than It Was Already| #1, #2
- The US is Using the Cold War Playbook Because That’s Easy. After all, That’s What They Know. The West is NOT Ready for a Multi-polar World — China Ambassador to UN | #1, #2, #3, #4, #5
- EU has Bolstered its Budget for Shortening Critical Supply Chains, Second Time in as Many Years | #1
- Bloomberg Commodity Index Sees a Steep Rise to an All-time High | #1 (accessed July 2021), #2
- As Capacity Expansion Falters in the East, Clamor for Local Supply Chains Becomes Louder | #1
- Long Pandemic Doesn’t Bode Well for Globalization | #1, #2
- Most Mid-Value Product Manufacturers Are Unable to Cope With High Freight Costs — Survey | #1
- Corporate & Consumer Hoarding is Exacerbating Supply Shortages at Every Stage of the Supply Chains — Supply Chain Expert | #1
- World Braces For Shortages Again as Long Supply Chains Get Bruised
- Global Economic Recovery Falters as Uncertainty Rises | #1, #2, #3 (accessed July 2021)
- Heightened Due Diligence is Forcing Companies to Drop Suppliers | #1
- Germany Leads the EU’s Break with the US on Handling Sino-Russian Bloc. “We are Committed to a Multilateral World.” — EU Commissioner | #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, #6
- Supply Throttling Has Forced Companies to Integrate Vertically. It’s Not Sustainable — Leading Supply Chain Expert | #1, #2
- Trade Blocs Reorganize Along Subcontinental Borders to Build Scale & Security in Demand and Supply
- Container Prices Remain High Despite Weak Demand as Maritime Access Tax Surges
- Procurement Cartels are Securing Supplies at Cost as More Countries ‘Friend-shore’ Critical Supply Chains | #1
- Supply Chains Eye Hyper Segmentation to Balance Consumer Needs and Geopolitics | #1
- Consumers Turn to Local, DIY Solutions as Brands Fail to Allay Shortages
- Low-cost Automation Sparks Re-shoring Boom as Cartels Assure Resource Supply
- African Union Raises Continental Ownership Requirement in Resource Firms to a Record 80%
- Subsidies and Tariffs Are at An All-time High
- For international supply chains to thrive, they need to become geopolitically Non Aligned — Secretary-General, NAM | #1
- Egypt Emerges as a Manufacturing Safe-haven for Warring Trade Blocs
- Many MNCs are Moving to New Legal Structures to Limit Regional Liability
- We Are Localizing Our Supply Chains. It Keeps The Shelves Stocked, Meets Divergent Regulations, Helps the Climate, and Gains Consumers’ Trust — CEO of a Major Manufacturing MNC.
- Repair-Reuse-Recycle Economy Rises Amid Supply Shortages | #1, #2
- FMCG Major is Offering a Guaranteed Lifetime Supply of Key Amenities in a Bid to Attract Consumers and Secure Demand
- Brands Bet on ‘Lease-a-lifestyle’ Business Models as the Products-to-Services Shift Becomes Permanent
- Berlin Unveils the World’s Largest Peer-to-Peer Goods Exchange & Delivery Platform
International Supply Chains: What Now?
- Discuss this possible, medium-to-long-term future. How might it affect your business?
- Consider the reasons why the future may unfold very differently from this provocation.
- For example, for all the hoopla and pessimism around globalization and its ‘impending doom’, the world is NOT as globalized as we think it is to begin with.
- Also, consider that significant realignments in supply chains often have long lead times. E.g., Britain has been mulling a national battery hub at least since 2017, yet plans have been submitted only now in 2021. Then there’s the timeline for actually developing the hub.
- Automation may help localization and re-shoring, but inequitable access to natural resources mars the world’s nations. You must account for that.
- Inequitable resources are also why many supply chain folks and foreign policy people are now talking about ‘allied-shoring’ and ‘friend-shoring’ when discussing on-shoring. That is also why strategic partnerships are getting renewed emphasis.
- De-emphasize predicting causes; emphasize countering effects — e.g., instead of predicting what exactly may make diversification difficult, it is more productive to simulate what might happen if you don’t diversify your supply.
- Add more factors to the mix — e.g., we haven’t even mentioned global debt, economic policies, consumer sentiments, cybersecurity et cetera.
- Imagine different futures (MUST DO) and build a portfolio of response strategies.
- Read our post The Future ain’t what it used to be for more perspective.
Have a great week ahead!